Jammu: Supporters during a public meeting of Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the ongoing J&K Assembly elections, in Jammu, Saturday, Sept 28, 2024. PTI Photo Jammu: Supporters during a public meeting of Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the ongoing J&K Assembly elections, in Jammu, Saturday, Sept 28, 2024. PTI Photo 
Jammu and Kashmir is divided along regional and religious lines. Jammu region remains stronghold of the BJP. The region’s importance in government formation is crucial. Historically, Jammu has leaned towards right-of-centre politics, gradually shifting further towards right-wing ideologies. This evolution was largely a reaction to the policies and political stances of the Kashmir region, often viewed as ‘anti-Jammu.’
Some analysts argue that Jammu is second only to Nagpur, home to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) headquarters, in its adherence to right-wing ideology. However, this comparison is often seen as oversimplified and lacking nuance.
The political landscape of Jammu underwent a significant transformation after 1947, when Dogra rule ended, and Sheikh Abdullah took over the leadership of Jammu and Kashmir. Jammu, feeling the shock of loss of power, adopted "anti-Kashmir” stance. This sentiment gave rise to the formation of Praja Parishad (PP), founded on November 17, 1947, in Jammu. The movement, driven by two key RSS figures, Balraj Madhok and Premnath Dogra, sought the complete integration of Jammu and Kashmir into India. BJP in its manifesto has pledged to introduce the Pandit Prem Nath Dogra Rozgar Yojana (PPNDRY).
PP then launched an agitation for the complete integration of J&K with India and coined the slogan of “Ek desh mein do vidhan, do pradhan, do nishan—nahin chaleinge, nahin chaleinge,”. On November 1952, protests prevented the J&K flag from being hoisted at the Civil Secretariat in Jammu.
The agitation peaked in March 1953 when the newly-formed Bharatiya Jana Sangh, a precursor to the BJP, along with the Hindu Mahasabha and the Akali Dal, launched a nationwide protest in support of the Praja Parishad. Between November 1951 and March 1953, 15 people died in police firings done in order to break up the agitation. Since Sheikh Abdullah’s government controlled the police, it only solidified the ‘anti-Sheikh’ and ‘anti-Kashmir’ narrative that would dominate Jammu’s political discourse for decades to come.
As the top leadership of National Conference (NC) was predominantly Muslim, the ‘anti-Kashmir’ sentiment took on a religious colour. This ‘anti-Kashmir’ stance wasn’t limited to the BJP. Even the Congress party has a history of promoting soft Hindutva in the region.
In the 1983 J&K elections, Indira Gandhi campaigned vigorously against the Resettlement Bill passed by the then-NC government. The Bill allowed residents who had left for Pakistan before 1954 to return to Jammu and Kashmir, reclaim their properties, and resettle. This legislation was portrayed as a ‘Muslim invasion’ of the Jammu region, as many of those who had left were from this area. As a result, Congress won 25 seats, nearly sweeping the Hindu-dominated areas of Jammu.
The BJP did not win a single seat in the 1983 elections. Political analysts believe that after this result the BJP dropped the socialist plank and vigorously pursued Hindutava politics. In the 2014 elections, the BJP, like Congress, secured 25 seats by sweeping the Hindu-majority areas of the Jammu region. This resurgence was largely driven by an ‘anti-Kashmir’ narrative.
In the 2002 elections, the BJP won just one seat. However, the 2008 assembly elections, held in the context of the Amarnath land agitation, proved pivotal. The issue arose when the then-Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad agreed to allocate about 40 hectares of land to the Amarnath Shrine Board for the purpose of setting up temporary shelters and facilities for Hindu pilgrims. This decision sparked intense protests in Kashmir, supported by separatist factions, leading the state government to reverse the land transfer. This move ignited a two-month-long agitation in the Jammu region.
During this period, then BJP spokesperson Prakash Javadekar had said: "It seems the Centre only understands the voices of the Valley and not of the Jammu region."
The then Congress spokesperson Veerappa Moily said: "Providing temporary accommodation for yatris over the country is not a new phenomenon… Hurriyat factions and other separatist groups had exploited the situation to revive their diabolic agenda.”
The Jammu agitation concluded with the government agreeing to limit the land's use to temporary accommodations for the yatra. It also highlighted that both BJP and Congress are on the same page as far as Jammu is concerned, more so when the issue concerned has religious overtones.
Political discourse in Jammu has increasingly revolved around an ‘anti-Kashmir’ narrative, often intertwined with a softer form of Hindutva. It stems from a longstanding feeling among Jammu residents of being ‘marginalised’ or ‘subjugated’ by Kashmir, the power centre. Since 1947, the region has never had a Hindu Chief Minister, leading to a pervasive sentiment that the government has never truly represented its interests.
The emergence of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in Kashmir introduced a split political landscape, allowing Jammu to find some representation in governance, initially through Congress and later through the BJP. However, the core seat of power remains elusive for Jammu. While it may not be demographically feasible to elect a Hindu Chief Minister, Hindus constitute about 37 per cent of population, the BJP sought to instil hope that such a possibility exists.
To this end, the BJP has prioritised Jammu in its election manifesto and campaign strategies. The key focus of its messaging has been on restoring “respect” and “justice” to the Jammu region. Home Minister Amit Shah, during a rally in Jammu, said Jammu, not Kashmir, would determine who forms the government. He further warned that if the National Conference and Congress were to regain power, Jammu would be left to go to Kashmir with a “begging bowl.”
The Congress party, which also holds significant political influence in Jammu, has made a concerted effort to prioritise the region in its election manifesto. One of the key promises is the restoration of the Durbar Move, a traditional practice that involved relocating the Civil Secretariat between Jammu and Srinagar. This practice was scrapped by the Lieutenant Governor's administration, leading to negative impacts on Jammu's economy and sparking strong public demand for its reinstatement. In contrast, the BJP has remained noticeably silent on this issue, possibly to avoid further complicating its political narrative.
Congress also promises to create welfare board for refugees who had come from Pakistan-occupied J&K and also give more rights to West Pakistani refugees, who can now vote in Assembly elections after abrogation of Art 370. They are all settled in Jammu.
Jammu is not a homogenous region and can be divided into three major sub-regions: the Jammu plains, where about 70 per cent of the population is Hindu; the Doda region, where Hindus and Muslims are almost evenly represented; and the Rajouri-Poonch region, which borders Pakistan and has a predominantly Muslim population. This demographic complexity adds layers of nuance to political strategies in Jammu, as parties must navigate the varied interests and identities of the constituents across these sub-regions.
The Doda region and the Rajouri-Poonch region each comprise eight assembly constituencies. BJP has awarded tickets to two Muslim candidates in the Doda region and five in the Rajouri-Poonch region.
Even though Rajouri and Poonch is Muslim-majority region it doesn’t share much cultural affiliation with Kashmir and have shown limited support for separatism and terrorism. In fact, members of the Muslim community, including women, have actively participated in Village Defence Committees to fight terrorists.
Following the recent delimitation process, five out of the eight assembly seats in this area have been reserved for Scheduled Tribes for the first time. The BJP has focused its outreach efforts on the Gujjar and Bakerwal tribes, who are predominant in this sub-region.
The Home Minister, addressing a public rally in Poonch, promised to provide two gas cylinders on the occasions of Eid and Muharram. This announcement marked a significant step towards engaging with the Muslim community.
This outreach is strategic as this area has experienced a troubling resurgence of terrorism in recent years. Following the abrogation of Article 370 on August 5, 2019, violence, which had been largely contained in Kashmir, began to resurface in the Jammu region—previously a relatively peaceful area since 2005.
In the past three years alone, over 50 security personnel have lost their lives in various encounters throughout Jammu, with the majority of casualties occurring in the Rajouri and Poonch districts. This alarming trend underscores the region's increasing volatility. Notably, on January 1, 2023, seven Hindu pilgrims were tragically killed by terrorists in Dangri, a district within Rajouri, which is also the home constituency of the J&K BJP president, Ravinder Raina.
Security and intelligence agencies attribute the recent surge in terrorism in the Jammu region to a significant decline in human intelligence. This phenomenon has become increasingly apparent since the abrogation of Article 370, which was framed by certain Kashmir-based politicians as an act of ‘subjugation’ against Muslims. This narrative has resonated in some districts of Jammu, leading to an atmosphere conducive to increased militant activity.
Terrorists have begun to target areas that had remained largely untouched by violence. A stark example of this shift was the tragic attack on seven Shiv Khoripilgrims in Reasi, coinciding with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third consecutive term in office, as well as the killing of five army personnel in Billawar, located in the Kathua district.
Many security analysts view this shift as a calculated strategy by terrorists and it does hit BJP politically. In an attempt to redirect attention away from these rising threats, the Home Minister addressed a rally in Jammu, accusing the National Conference (NC) and Congress of planning to release stone-pelters and terrorists in a bid to revive terrorism in the region.
The restoration of statehood remains a pivotal concern for the people of Jammu, reflecting a profound sense of ‘hurt’ following the transition of the region into a Union Territory (UT) and its subsequent bifurcation. Dogra rulers had extended the boundaries of J&K to include areas such as Tibet and Gilgit-Baltistan, fostering a sense of pride among the Dogra community. However, since the decision made on August 5, 2019, there has been a palpable sense of loss regarding their identity and autonomy.
For the residents of Jammu, statehood is not merely a political or administrative issue; it resonates deeply as an identity matter. The desire for restoration stems from a longing for representation and a direct role in the governance.
Interestingly, despite Jammu's historical significance as a stronghold of the RSS, the region has remained largely free from Hindu-Muslim violence since the partition in 1947. This is particularly notable as region has witnessed massacres of Hindus by terrorists in districts like Doda, Rajouri, Poonch, and Udhampur. Jammu city has accommodated Kashmiri Muslims who also migrated alongside Kashmiri Pandits following the violence of 1990.
The Hindus of the region nursed a sense of being the “other hindu” as their voice was not much heard in rest of India specially before 2014 and Kashmir remained focused of narrative and media. They were seen as “others” in Kashmir dominated governance. Its angst was more of being ‘sidelined’ and ‘discriminated.’ It gravitated towards political parties who assuaged this feeling. BJP has given it voice and recognized its ‘identity.’
In these assembly elections, Jammu seeks to become a dominant voice in governance. The region yearns for the restoration of statehood and an end to the influence of ‘outsiders.’ Despite the BJP having ruled J&K directly for the past six years, there is a feeling that Jammu hasn't had significant input in governance. While the removal of Kashmiri dominance from government offers a vicarious sense of ‘justice,’ it hasn't fully addressed the region's desire for greater representation. This “wound” being ‘ignored’ hasn’t still healed and pus coming from continues to be breeding ground for right-wing politics.
(Tarun Upadhaya is a senior journalist based in Jammu with about three decades of journalistic experience. He has worked with Hindustan Times and is contributing for national and international publications.)jiliplus