When a major hurricane hits, it is often the storm surge — the sea or gulf water driven ashore by winds — that poses the greatest threat to people’s lives and livelihoods.
The storm surge that will accompany Hurricane Helene is expected to peak on Thursday night. It is also poised to break records in Florida.
According to forecasts from the National Weather Service, the surge could rise to between 15 and 20 feet above normal tide levels along much of the Big Bend, which is the coastline area where the state’s panhandle curves toward its peninsula.
In other words, water from the Gulf of Mexico could rise almost to the height of a two-story building, inundating dozens of communities along the coast such as Steinhatchee, St. Marks and Apalachicola.
“When you look at historical context for all storms that we’ve had over the last several years, 15 to 20 feet is a rare thing,” said Cody Fritz, who leads a team of storm surge specialists at the National Hurricane Center.
If the forecasts are right, the surge associated with Helene would just about match the one that came with Hurricane Ike when it devastated Galveston, Texas, in 2008.
And it would exceed the high water levels seen during Hurricane Isabel, which in 2003 was one of the worst storms ever to affect the Chesapeake Bay region along Virginia and North Carolina; and Hurricane Dennis, which took a serious toll on St. Marks, Fla., in 2005. In both cases, storm surges mostly stayed below 10 feet.
But it would not match Hurricane Katrinagolden palasyo, which brought catastrophic damage to Louisiana and Mississippi in 2005 with surge flooding that reached up to 28 feet above normal tide levels in some areas.