Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are running neck-and-neck in Miami-Dade, according to a new Republican poll that raises serious questions about whether Democrats can hold Florida’s largest county in the November presidential election.
The poll, which was commissioned by Miami-Dade County Commissioner Kevin Cabrera, shows Trump and Harris tied with 47% support each. Only 6% of likely voters remain undecided.
The survey of 500 likely general election voters in Miami-Dade County, conducted from Aug. 22-25 by the Miami-based firm Inquire, paints a much different picture of the presidential race than another recent poll released earlier this month by Christian Ulvert, a Democratic strategist and top adviser to Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava.
That poll, which included a larger sample of 1,071 likely voters, found Harris leading Trump by roughly 14 percentage points among Miami-Dade voters. Harris’ double-digit advantage in that survey was touted as a sign of improving fortunes for Democrats in a state that has edged toward Republicans in recent years.
Cabrera’s poll, however, suggests that Miami-Dade, a county that Democrats long relied on to help deliver statewide wins in Florida, is effectively a toss-up in this year’s election.
“Once a Democratic stronghold, Miami-Dade is no longer a guaranteed win as our community embraces conservative values and rejects the failed Biden-Harris policies ruining our nation,” Cabrera, a staunch Trump ally who worked for the former president’s 2020 campaign in Florida, said in a statement to the Miami Herald. “The results show that President Trump’s message resonates more powerfully than ever, and that he is poised to be elected as our 47th President.”
While both Trump and Harris perform similarly among voters from their respective parties in Cabrera’s poll — 90% of Republican voters say they are backing Trump, and 90% of Democrats say they will vote for Harris — Trump has an advantage among unaffiliated voters, 49% of whom say they plan to vote for Trump, compared to 41% who are backing Harris, according to the poll.
The poll shows Harris’ favorability slightly higher than Trump’s. Forty-nine percent of likely voters say they have a favorable view of the vice president, compared to 45% who hold an unfavorable opinion of her. Trump’s favorability stands at 48%, while another 46% of voters say they have an unfavorable view of the former president.
A polling memo shared with the Herald argued that the survey’s findings are in line with recent trends in Miami-Dade; Democratic presidential candidates have seen their margins of victory in the county shrink in recent elections, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis managed to win the county in his 2022 reelection bid.
A Trump win in Miami-Dade would be huge for the GOP. The last Republican presidential candidate to carry the county was former President George H.W. Bush in 1988.
“While there are still more than two months to go with Labor Day in front of us, considering the growth in President Trump’s coalition, he has the potential to become the best performing Republican presidential candidate in Miami-Dade County since 1988,” the memo from Inquire reads.
The U.S. Senate raceCabrera’s poll also found Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Scott with a slight 1-percentage-point lead over his Democratic opponent, former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Forty-seven percent of likely voters in Miami-Dade County say they plan to vote for Scott, compared to 46% who are backing Mucarsel-Powell.
Scott’s lead, according to the poll, is due in part to his strength among Republican voters, 91% of whom are backing his reelection bid. Mucarsel-Powell, on the other hand, has the support of 86% of Democratic voters in Miami-Dade, the survey found. Scott also performs slightly better among non-affiliated voters, leading Mucarsel-Powell 44% to 41%, though 15% remain undecided in the race.
While polls typically represent a snapshot in time and aren’t predictive of final election outcomes, Cabrera’s survey suggests a massive improvement in Scott’s standing in Miami-Dade. He lost the county in his first Senate bid in 2018 by more than 21 percentage points, even as he went on to narrowly beat Democratic former U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson statewide.
MethodologyThe poll from Cabrera and Inquire surveyed 500 likely general election voters in Miami-Dade County. Thirty-one percent are registered Republicans, 36% are registered Democrats and 33 percent are registered as “no party affiliation,” or NPA. It has a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points.
This story was originally published August 2863win, 2024, 11:55 AM.