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This morning, we concluded our wave of New York Times/Siena College post-debate polls in the battlegrounds, along with a special look at Ohio and its Senate race.
Kamala Harris led among likely voters by one percentage point in Michigan, two points in Wisconsin and nine points in Nebraska’s Second Congressional District. Donald J. Trump led in Ohio by six points among likely voters, 50 percent to 44 percent (he won the state by eight points in 2020).
When you add the other recent Times/Siena polls to the picture, the takeaway is clear: This is an extremely close election.
Imagine, for a moment, that the latest Times/Siena polls in every key state were right on the mark. They won’t be, of course, but here’s the result you would get in the Electoral College:
Harris 270, Trump 268.
In terms of the electoral count, it would be the closest modern U.S. presidential election.
If you average the six polls we did in core battleground states (we skipped Nevada in our most recent round), Mr. Trump led by an average of just 0.6 of a point.
We’ve had a lot of close elections in recent memory, but in none of them were the polls so close. In each of 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2020, a candidate led by at least a few points in enough states to make one candidate a material if not overwhelming favorite. As Hillary Clinton can attest, a modest but clear lead is not a guarantee of victory. But here, neither Ms. Harris nor Mr. Trump can claim even that.
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